Barendrecht vs Katwijk
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
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LWLDWThe score model made a Katwijk win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 74%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barendrecht 1.75 – 2.13 Katwijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barendrecht win | 32.3% | 29.8% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 22.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Katwijk win | 47.3% | 47.3% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.4% | 67.6% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.3% | 48.5% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 72.6% | 68.2% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.7% | 47.7% | +3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barendrecht 34.6 / Katwijk 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.