Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 16:30 CET
DWWLW
LLWDLThe score model made an Excelsior win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Excelsior 1.51 – 1.25 Sparta Rotterdam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 42.3% | 42.2% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 25.4% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 30.1% | 32.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 60.1% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 39.2% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 63.2% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 40.5% | -14.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Excelsior 31.7 / Sparta Rotterdam 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.