Al Qadisiya vs Al Kuwait
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-08-31 · 19:55 CET
LWDWL
WDDDWThe score model made an Al Kuwait win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Qadisiya 1.23 – 1.61 Al Kuwait.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Qadisiya win | 28.1% | 26.8% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 28.5% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Al Kuwait win | 45.2% | 44.6% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 45.8% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 26.3% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 50.7% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 32.4% | +3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Qadisiya 25.5 / Al Kuwait 24.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.