Al Naser vs Al-Fahaheel
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-08-30 · 19:55 CET
WWDWW
LLLLLThe score model made an Al Naser win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Naser 1.68 – 1.31 Al-Fahaheel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Naser win | 45.1% | 43.1% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Al-Fahaheel win | 28.9% | 29.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 52.8% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 32.9% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 57.0% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 36.5% | -1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Naser 20.4 / Al-Fahaheel 25.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.