Al Jahra vs Al Arabi
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-08-30 · 19:55 CET
LDLLW
LLWDLThe score model made an Al Arabi win the most likely outcome at 74%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Jahra 0.65 – 2.33 Al Arabi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jahra win | 8.0% | 8.1% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.7% | 16.6% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Al Arabi win | 74.3% | 75.3% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 58.1% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 37.7% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 41.6% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 40.4% | -16.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Jahra 15.7 / Al Arabi 24.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.