Pineto vs Sambenedettese
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
LLDDL
WWDLLThe score model makes a Pineto win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 32%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pineto 1.13 – 0.85 Sambenedettese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pineto win | 40.9% | — | — |
| Draw | 32.7% | — | — |
| Sambenedettese win | 26.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 39.7% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pineto 43.5 / Sambenedettese 25.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.