Forli vs Vis Pesaro
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-09-12 · 21:00 CET
DDLDL
LLWLLThe score model made a Forli win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forli 1.34 – 1.23 Vis Pesaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forli win | 38.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Vis Pesaro win | 33.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.3% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forli 25.6 / Vis Pesaro 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Forli vs Vis Pesaro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.