Pescara vs Ravenna
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 18:00 CET
WWWLD
WWDWDThe score model made a Ravenna win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pescara 1.20 – 1.42 Ravenna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 30.9% | 38.5% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 28.7% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Ravenna win | 41.0% | 32.9% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 47.4% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 27.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 53.4% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 32.5% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pescara 19.7 / Ravenna 24.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.