Campobasso vs Gubbio
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-09-05 · 18:00 CET
DWWWL
DDWLLThe score model made a Campobasso win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 2:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Campobasso 1.15 – 0.80 Gubbio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campobasso win | 42.9% | 51.0% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.7% | 28.1% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Gubbio win | 24.4% | 20.9% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.8% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Campobasso 36.7 / Gubbio 45.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.