Pineto vs Livorno
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-08-29 · 21:00 CET
DLLDD
WLWWDThe score model made a Pineto win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pineto 1.43 – 1.15 Livorno.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pineto win | 42.5% | 34.9% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 30.6% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Livorno win | 29.4% | 34.5% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 40.9% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 22.9% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 48.2% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.5% | 28.3% | +16.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pineto 42.3 / Livorno 23.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.