Forli vs Pescara
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-08-29 · 21:00 CET
LWDDW
WWWWLThe score model made a Pescara win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 6:3 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forli 1.20 – 1.64 Pescara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forli win | 27.1% | 25.1% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Pescara win | 46.7% | 46.4% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 47.0% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 28.4% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 52.4% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 33.6% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forli 24.3 / Pescara 19 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.