Giana Erminio vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
WWLLL
LDWDWThe score model made a Giana Erminio win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Giana Erminio 1.52 – 0.88 Dolomiti Bellunesi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giana Erminio win | 52.0% | 41.3% | +10.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 29.7% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Dolomiti Bellunesi win | 21.2% | 29.0% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 39.2% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 19.7% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 45.4% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 26.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Giana Erminio 43.3 / Dolomiti Bellunesi 25.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.