Lumezzane vs Giana Erminio
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-08-30 · 21:00 CET
WDWLW
LWWLLThe score model made a Lumezzane win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lumezzane 1.16 – 1.01 Giana Erminio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumezzane win | 38.7% | 37.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 30.7% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Giana Erminio win | 30.9% | 31.7% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.9% | 39.5% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.4% | 21.1% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 46.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 27.8% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lumezzane 42.9 / Giana Erminio 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.