Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Alcione Milano
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-08-30 · 18:00 CET
LLDWD
LDWWDThe score model made an Alcione Milano win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dolomiti Bellunesi 0.88 – 1.16 Alcione Milano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolomiti Bellunesi win | 27.0% | 39.2% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.2% | 30.5% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Alcione Milano win | 41.8% | 30.4% | +11.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.4% | 39.1% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.0% | 20.5% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.7% | 46.1% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.7% | 27.5% | -5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dolomiti Bellunesi 25 / Alcione Milano 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.