Arzignano vs Pro Vercelli
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-08-30 · 18:00 CET
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LWLDLThe score model made an Arzignano win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arzignano 1.50 – 0.90 Pro Vercelli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arzignano win | 50.7% | 45.9% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 30.3% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Pro Vercelli win | 22.0% | 23.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 42.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 23.2% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 47.6% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 29.1% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arzignano 45.8 / Pro Vercelli 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.