Pisa vs Catanzaro
Serie B, Italy · 2026-08-30 · 21:00 CET
LDWLW
LLWLLThe score model made a Pisa win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pisa 1.68 – 1.27 Catanzaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa win | 45.7% | 50.3% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 28.3% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Catanzaro win | 27.7% | 21.4% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 43.9% | +12.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 24.1% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 48.1% | +11.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 30.2% | +7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pisa 22.1 / Catanzaro 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.