Mantova vs Empoli
Serie B, Italy · 2026-08-30 · 19:00 CET
WWLWW
LWDWLThe score model made a Mantova win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mantova 1.49 – 1.22 Empoli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 41.9% | 46.8% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 29.3% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Empoli win | 29.7% | 23.9% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 44.9% | +5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 25.3% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 50.5% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 30.8% | +2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mantova 37.6 / Empoli 25.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.