Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia
Serie B, Italy · 2026-08-29 · 19:00 CET
DWLDL
WDLLWThe score model made a Sampdoria win the most likely outcome at 34%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sampdoria 1.04 – 0.99 Juve Stabia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 34.5% | 50.4% | -15.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.7% | 28.7% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Juve Stabia win | 31.9% | 20.9% | +11.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.9% | 41.1% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.7% | 22.0% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.0% | 45.8% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.6% | 28.7% | -9.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sampdoria 43.7 / Juve Stabia 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.