Cremonese vs Modena
Serie B, Italy · 2026-08-28 · 20:30 CET
DWLLL
WLLWWThe score model made a Cremonese win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cremonese 1.48 – 0.93 Modena.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 48.6% | 44.2% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 30.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Modena win | 22.3% | 25.6% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 41.3% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 22.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 47.0% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 28.1% | +5.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cremonese 19.3 / Modena 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.