Empoli U20 vs Cesena U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
LWWDD
WWWDDThe score model made a Cesena U20 win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:3 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Empoli U20 1.28 – 1.65 Cesena U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli U20 win | 29.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Cesena U20 win | 45.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Empoli U20 14.1 / Cesena U20 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.