Parma U20 vs Sassuolo U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-08-28 · 17:00 CET
WWDDW
WDLDLThe score model made a Parma U20 win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parma U20 1.68 – 0.97 Sassuolo U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma U20 win | 53.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Sassuolo U20 win | 21.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Parma U20 25.6 / Sassuolo U20 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.