Panathinaikos vs PAOK
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-06 · 20:30 CET
LLDWW
DDWWLThe score model made a PAOK win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panathinaikos 1.15 – 1.25 PAOK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos win | 31.6% | 46.1% | -14.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 27.8% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| PAOK win | 36.4% | 26.1% | +10.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 50.0% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 29.2% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 54.0% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 34.3% | -5.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Panathinaikos 35 / PAOK 36.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.