Levadiakos vs Panetolikos
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-06 · 19:00 CET
WLLLL
DLWWWThe score model made a Levadiakos win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Levadiakos 1.75 – 0.99 Panetolikos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levadiakos win | 53.3% | 49.9% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 28.2% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Panetolikos win | 19.3% | 21.9% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 43.1% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 23.4% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 47.4% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 30.1% | +1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Levadiakos 32.4 / Panetolikos 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.