AEK Athens FC vs Aris
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-05 · 20:00 CET
WLLWW
WWWWLThe score model made an AEK Athens FC win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 5:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 1.45 – 0.68 Aris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC win | 53.8% | 68.3% | -14.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 20.3% | +10.3% | ✗ |
| Aris win | 15.5% | 11.4% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.8% | 52.4% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.7% | 30.9% | -14.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | 45.3% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 35.2% | -12.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AEK Athens FC 18.6 / Aris 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.