Kifisia vs AEK Athens FC
Super League, Greece · 2026-08-30 · 20:00 CET
WLDWD
WLLWWThe score model made an AEK Athens FC win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kifisia 0.78 – 1.70 AEK Athens FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kifisia win | 15.1% | 10.2% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 18.4% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| AEK Athens FC win | 57.7% | 71.4% | -13.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 56.8% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 35.5% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 45.7% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 38.6% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kifisia 28.3 / AEK Athens FC 18.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.