Atromitos vs PAOK
Super League, Greece · 2026-08-30 · 19:15 CET
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DDDWWThe score model made a PAOK win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atromitos 0.92 – 1.77 PAOK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos win | 17.5% | 20.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.9% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| PAOK win | 55.7% | 54.5% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | 52.6% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% | 31.9% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 53.8% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 35.9% | -0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atromitos 38.4 / PAOK 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.