Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiacos Piraeus
Super League, Greece · 2026-08-30 · 20:00 CET
WDWLL
DWDWWThe score model made an Olympiacos Piraeus win the most likely outcome at 62%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 0.56 – 1.61 Olympiacos Piraeus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis win | 10.9% | 12.6% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 22.6% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Olympiacos Piraeus win | 61.5% | 64.8% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.9% | 47.2% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.5% | 26.6% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.9% | 43.1% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 32.6% | -7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Asteras Tripolis 38.9 / Olympiacos Piraeus 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.