Lubeck vs Todesfelde
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-25 · 19:30 CET
DWDLD
WLLLLThe score model made a Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 3:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lubeck 2.38 – 1.06 Todesfelde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubeck win | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Todesfelde win | 15.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.3% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lubeck 33.9 / Todesfelde 19.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.