Phonix Lubeck vs Todesfelde
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-16 · 18:30 CET
WWLWD
LLWLDThe score model made a Phonix Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 9:0 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Phonix Lubeck 2.33 – 0.87 Todesfelde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phonix Lubeck win | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Todesfelde win | 12.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Phonix Lubeck 46.4 / Todesfelde 17.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Phonix Lubeck vs Todesfelde in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.