Hannover II vs Lubeck
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-16 · 18:00 CET
LDDWL
DWDLDThe score model made a Hannover II win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hannover II 1.90 – 1.22 Lubeck.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover II win | 52.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Lubeck win | 24.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.1% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hannover II 35.4 / Lubeck 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.