Emden vs Jeddeloh
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
WWLLD
WLLLWThe score model made an Emden win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 74%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Emden 2.09 – 1.76 Jeddeloh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emden win | 45.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Jeddeloh win | 32.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.5% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Emden 39.7 / Jeddeloh 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Emden vs Jeddeloh in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.