VfB Oldenburg vs Hannover II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-11 · 18:30 CET
WWLLW
DWWWWThe score model made a VfB Oldenburg win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 4:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VfB Oldenburg 1.83 – 1.51 Hannover II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Oldenburg win | 44.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Hannover II win | 31.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.7% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VfB Oldenburg 43.4 / Hannover II 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.