Norderstedt vs Lubeck
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-06 · 14:00 CET
DWLLW
DWDLDThe score model made a Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norderstedt 1.50 – 1.79 Lubeck.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norderstedt win | 32.0% | 44.5% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.5% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Lubeck win | 44.1% | 31.0% | +13.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 66.5% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 47.0% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | 67.7% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.9% | 46.0% | +2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norderstedt 44.6 / Lubeck 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.