St. Pauli II vs Phonix Lubeck
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-30 · 14:00 CET
LWWLL
WWWWLThe score model made a Phonix Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Pauli II 1.08 – 1.87 Phonix Lubeck.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli II win | 21.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Phonix Lubeck win | 55.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.8% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Pauli II 44.7 / Phonix Lubeck 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.