Lubeck vs Drochtersen/Assel

Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET

DWDLD

2 : 3

full-time · HT 0:1

xG 1.31 – 1.61

LLWLW

The score model made a Drochtersen/Assel win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.

Scoreline probabilities

1:111.6%

1:29.1%

0:18.6%

0:26.9%

2:16.3%

2:26.1%

Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.

First goal · head-to-head

0–1515–3030–4545–6060–7575–90

Lubeck (30)Drochtersen/Assel (30)

2026-04-30 · Lubeck – Drochtersen/Assel1:1

2025-10-17 · Drochtersen/Assel – Lubeck7:2

2025-02-21 · Lubeck – Drochtersen/Assel0:1

Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)

One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lubeck 1.31 – 1.61 Drochtersen/Assel.

Market	Data %	Implied	Divergence	Result
Lubeck win	30.6%	—	—	✗
Draw	25.5%	—	—	✗
Drochtersen/Assel win	43.9%	—	—	✓
Over 1.5 goals	79.5%	—	—	✓
Over 2.5 goals	56.0%	—	—	✓
Over 3.5 goals	33.6%	—	—	✓
Both teams to score	59.1%	—	—	✓
HT over 0.5 goals	77.9%	—	—	✓
HT over 1.5 goals	45.0%	—	—	✗

Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lubeck 36 / Drochtersen/Assel 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.

Averaged bookmaker prices: home —, draw —, away —.

How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.