Bayern Munich W vs Freiburg W
Frauen-Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-06 · 16:00 CET
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LDDWLThe score model made a Bayern Munich W win the most likely outcome at 87%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bayern Munich W 3.08 – 0.50 Freiburg W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich W win | 87.3% | 87.9% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 9.4% | 7.7% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Freiburg W win | 3.3% | 4.3% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% | 72.8% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.0% | 55.6% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 37.9% | 38.8% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 51.9% | -10.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bayern Munich W 30.8 / Freiburg W 30.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.