Wehen vs RW Essen
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-08-29 · 14:00 CET
LWLLD
WWLWDThe score model made a Wehen win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wehen 1.67 – 1.56 RW Essen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wehen win | 40.0% | 32.7% | +7.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.2% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| RW Essen win | 35.3% | 42.2% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 61.5% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.6% | 41.1% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 63.7% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 42.3% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wehen 41.1 / RW Essen 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.