Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-30 · 13:30 CET
WLLWW
LLDDLThe score model made a Magdeburg win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Magdeburg 1.69 – 1.50 Holstein Kiel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 41.9% | 44.2% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.4% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Holstein Kiel win | 33.9% | 30.4% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 61.2% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.6% | 40.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | 63.3% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.1% | 41.7% | +5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Magdeburg 42.3 / Holstein Kiel 31.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.