Darmstadt vs Hannover
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-30 · 13:30 CET
DLDLL
DDLLWThe score model made a Darmstadt win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Darmstadt 1.52 – 1.30 Hannover.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 41.8% | 31.1% | +10.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Hannover win | 32.1% | 43.6% | -11.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 61.4% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 40.5% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 63.7% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 41.8% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Darmstadt 36.9 / Hannover 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.