Nurnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-29 · 20:30 CET
WDWWW
LWLWLThe score model made a Nurnberg win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nurnberg 1.71 – 1.38 Arminia Bielefeld.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 45.1% | 42.1% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Arminia Bielefeld win | 30.5% | 32.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 57.1% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 36.5% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 60.6% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 38.9% | +3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nurnberg 42.4 / Arminia Bielefeld 26 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.