Braunschweig vs Hertha Berlin
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-28 · 18:30 CET
WLWLL
WLWWWThe score model made a Hertha Berlin win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:5 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Braunschweig 1.26 – 1.45 Hertha Berlin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 32.4% | 33.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.9% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Hertha Berlin win | 40.8% | 39.4% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 56.5% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 36.0% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 60.7% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 38.8% | -0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Braunschweig 42.5 / Hertha Berlin 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.