Marseille vs Paris FC
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-06 · 20:45 CET
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LWDWWThe score model made a Marseille win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Marseille 1.85 – 1.21 Paris FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 51.8% | 51.4% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 25.2% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Paris FC win | 24.1% | 23.4% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 54.4% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 33.7% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 56.5% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 37.0% | -6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Marseille 42.4 / Paris FC 23.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.