Le Havre vs Brest
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-05 · 20:45 CET
DLWLD
LLDDDThe score model made a Brest win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Le Havre 1.25 – 1.30 Brest.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre win | 34.8% | 35.0% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 29.2% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Brest win | 36.9% | 35.9% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 47.8% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 28.0% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 53.6% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 32.4% | +6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Le Havre 39.8 / Brest 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.