PSG vs Monaco
Ligue 1, France · 2026-09-04 · 21:05 CET
WWLDD
WLLWWThe score model made a PSG win the most likely outcome at 64%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PSG 2.43 – 1.19 Monaco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG win | 64.0% | 72.0% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.2% | 16.5% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Monaco win | 16.8% | 11.5% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.1% | 71.0% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.9% | 51.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 60.2% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 49.7% | -6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PSG 42.7 / Monaco 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.