Strasbourg vs Lens
Ligue 1, France · 2026-08-29 · 17:15 CET
DWWLW
WLWWLThe score model made a Lens win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.38 – 1.58 Lens.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg win | 32.6% | 24.8% | +7.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.6% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Lens win | 41.6% | 49.6% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 59.2% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 38.3% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 60.7% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 39.8% | -4.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Strasbourg 42.2 / Lens 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.