Brest vs Toulouse
Ligue 1, France · 2026-08-29 · 20:45 CET
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WWDLDThe score model made a Brest win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brest 1.45 – 1.28 Toulouse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest win | 40.4% | 35.8% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 28.6% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Toulouse win | 32.6% | 35.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 49.0% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 28.6% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 54.4% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 33.1% | +6.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brest 42.2 / Toulouse 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.