Auxerre vs Angers
Ligue 1, France · 2026-08-29 · 20:45 CET
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LDDLWThe score model made an Auxerre win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auxerre 1.39 – 0.82 Angers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 49.7% | 46.8% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.9% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Angers win | 21.2% | 25.2% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.9% | 47.0% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 26.8% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% | 51.5% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 31.9% | -4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Auxerre 36.7 / Angers 36.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.