Lille vs PSG
Ligue 1, France · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
DWLWD
WWLDDThe score model made a PSG win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lille 1.18 – 1.50 PSG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 29.1% | 19.0% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 24.4% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| PSG win | 43.8% | 56.7% | -12.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 53.8% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 32.6% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 53.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 36.4% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lille 42.3 / PSG 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.