Lyon W vs Paris FC W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-09-12 · 13:30 CET
WDWWW
WWWLWThe score model made a Lyon W win the most likely outcome at 70%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 7:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lyon W 2.30 – 0.83 Paris FC W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon W win | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Paris FC W win | 11.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.6% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lyon W 27.4 / Paris FC W 28.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.