Weston-super-Mare vs Dover
National League South, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LLWWL
LLWWWThe score model made a Weston-super-Mare win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Weston-super-Mare 1.73 – 0.77 Dover.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston-super-Mare win | 60.8% | 60.4% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Dover win | 16.7% | 16.7% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 52.0% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 31.2% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 49.6% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 36.0% | -12.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Weston-super-Mare 33.4 / Dover 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.