Weston-super-Mare vs Dover
National League South, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DLWWD
LDLWLThe score model makes a Weston-super-Mare win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 76.2% vs 61.1% implied (+15.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Weston-super-Mare 1.73 – 0.77 Dover.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weston-super-Mare win | 60.8% | 62.5% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 21.4% | +1.1% |
| Dover win | 16.6% | 16.0% | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 56.8% | -11.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 36.3% | -12.0% |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 52.0% | -8.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 38.9% | -15.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Weston-super-Mare 33.5 / Dover 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.